Boeing is forecasting that China will need 8,560 new commercial airplanes through 2042, driven by economic growth well above the global average and increasing demand for domestic air travel. China’s commercial airliner fleet will more than double to nearly 9,600 jets over the next 20 years, according to Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company’s long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and related services.
With its ongoing recovery of air travel, China will account for one-fifth of the world’s airplane deliveries in the next two decades, according to the CMO. China’s domestic aviation market also will be the largest in the world by the end of the forecast period, helping power demand for 6,470 single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 737 MAX family.
→ Vietnam Airlines signs purchase of 50 Boeing 737 MAX jets
“Domestic air traffic in China has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels and international traffic is recovering steadily,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president, Commercial Marketing. “As China’s economy and traffic continue to grow, Boeing’s complete line-up of commercial jets will play a key role in helping meet that growth sustainably and economically.”
The 2023 China CMO includes these projections through 2042:
- Along with demand for single-aisle jets, Chinese carriers will require 1,550 widebody airplanes mainly to support a growing network of international routes.
- Fleet growth will drive two thirds of forecast deliveries in China, while the remainder will replace older jets with modern airplanes that increase efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions.
- Continued growth in e-commerce and express shipping will drive demand for 190 new freighter deliveries.
- China will require 433,000 new aviation personnel – including 134,000 pilots, 138,000 technicians and 161,000 cabin crew members – to serve its growing market.
- China’s commercial fleet will generate demand for $675 billion in aviation services including maintenance, repair, training and spare parts.
Commercial aircraft deliveries to China (2023-2042): 350 regional aircraft; 6,470 single-aisle; 1,550 widebody; 190 freighter.
2023 marks the 50th year of Boeing airplanes’ service in China. In 1972, China ordered 10 707 jets to modernize its commercial fleet. Today, Boeing airplanes are the mainstay of China’s air travel and cargo system.
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