Airbus: Latin American travelers to double their travel in the next two decades

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Passenger traffic in Latin America is expected to double over the next two decades – from 0.44 annual trips per capita in 2019 to 0.87 annual trips per capita in 2042. According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), per capita travel rates will nearly double in Mexico and more than double in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia.

Overall, traffic will grow by 2.2% over the next 20 years, equivalent to 2,390 new passenger and cargo aircraft. Of these 2,390 new passenger and freighter aircraft, 190 will be wide-body and 2,200 will be single-aisle, representing 92% of new aircraft deliveries in Latin America, making the region a predominantly single-aisle market.

The trend to fly more is driven by the projected growth of the middle class from 400 million to 490 million people by 2042, representing 67% of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean. In addition, the high penetration of Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) has made air travel more affordable, representing 50% of the total seats offered domestically in Latin America. Brazil and Mexico show the highest penetrations of the LCC model in the region.

LATAM Airlines takes delivery of its first Airbus A321neo

The growth of e-commerce in Latin America has led to increased demand for air cargo services over the past two decades and origin and destination (O&D) cargo traffic to, from and within Latin America is expected to nearly double by 2042.

The GMF also projects O&D passenger traffic to increase by 3.5% annually in Latin America, doubling over the next 20 years. Domestic traffic will grow at a rate of more than 3.8% annually, while intra-regional traffic will increase by 3.2%.

Latin America’s in-service fleet will nearly double from 1,440 aircraft currently in service to 2,630 over the next two decades. Of these, 240 aircraft will be maintained, 1,200 will be used to replace less fuel-efficient aircraft, and 1,190 aircraft will represent growth in demand.

Airbus has sold more than 1,150 aircraft in Latin America and the Caribbean. More than 750 are in operation throughout the region, and it has more than 520 on order, representing a 58% market share of passenger aircraft in service. Since 1994, the European manufacturer has won 75% of net orders in the region.

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