Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, has sounded alarms in the aviation sector with a clear warning: it could cancel its orders with Boeing if proposed U.S. tariffs drive up the cost of aircraft.
A Fleet at Stake
Currently, Ryanair expects to receive the final 29 aircraft from an order of 210 Boeing 737 MAX units, scheduled for delivery by March of next year. Additionally, it has firm orders for 150 MAX 10s—the largest model in the 737 family—and options for another 150, with deliveries set to begin in 2027.
However, CEO Michael O’Leary made it clear that these agreements are under review if tariffs affect export prices. In a letter to a U.S. lawmaker, cited by Reuters, O’Leary warned:
“If the U.S. government proceeds with its ill-conceived plan to impose tariffs, and if these materially impact the export prices of Boeing aircraft to Europe, we would certainly reconsider both our current and future orders.”
Trade Tensions and Contractual Clauses
Industry sources note that contracts between Boeing and Airbus do not include provisions for tariffs, as the sector has operated for decades without such measures. Tariffs are only applied once ownership of the aircraft is transferred to the buyer and the contract is fulfilled.
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Moreover, contracts typically contain clauses requiring each party to cover its own taxes, without explicitly mentioning tariffs. Even so, many companies are revising the wording of future contracts, anticipating that trade tensions will persist.
Limited Alternatives: Airbus at Capacity and COMAC in Sight
Ryanair’s warning comes as Airbus, Boeing’s main competitor in the single-aisle aircraft segment, has communicated that its production capacity is fully booked until the end of the decade.
With Airbus ruled out in the short term, O’Leary hinted at a less conventional alternative: Chinese manufacturer COMAC. In his letter to Democratic Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi—who expressed concerns about potential Chinese aircraft purchases on security grounds—O’Leary stated that Ryanair has not held talks with COMAC since 2011 but would consider offers if they are 10% to 20% cheaper than Airbus.
However, COMAC’s C919, with a capacity of 150 to 190 seats, does not directly compete with the MAX 10, which can carry up to 230 passengers. This limits the technical feasibility for Ryanair, which has built its operational strategy around maximizing efficiency with high-density aircraft.
Additionally, the C919 has yet to be certified in Europe. Last Monday, the Director of the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Florian Guillermet, stated that COMAC would need to wait 3 to 6 years to certify the model.
MAX Troubles and Commercial Pressure
Although Ryanair is Boeing’s largest non-U.S. customer and benefits from guaranteed minimum prices in its region, O’Leary has publicly expressed frustration over MAX delivery delays. However, he recently acknowledged to Reuters that delivery quality has improved significantly over the past year.
Ryanair’s warning sends a strong message to Boeing and the U.S. government: political decisions can have real consequences for global business. With the Irish airline’s growth at stake and a market with limited options, any move in this game will affect not only the involved parties but also the balance of the global aviation market.
Will Boeing be willing to concede, or will Ryanair’s fleet enter a new era of diversification?
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