Experts debate when flights will return and the future of airlines.

The coronavirus has altered our lives in ways that even today we cannot fully understand and that will only become clear in the years to come. The travel and tourism sector is one of the hardest hit, and not only will it take an estimated time to recover, which in the best of cases will be only four years, but it will be completely transformed, although few risk stating whether these changes will last for a certain time or remain forever.

After the attacks of September 11, 2001, people were afraid to get on a plane. 1.66 billion passengers flew in 2001, and this number dropped to 1.63 billion in 2002. Relatively little, but the truth is that the sector suffered several blows: there were layoffs, mergers between airlines, and this resulted in fewer flights and fuller planes. The airlines reinforced security and became more cautious. A very similar but completely different scenario is now being observed.

“Learning from the crisis is a priority, and making sure we are prepared is now the most important thing. After September 11, recovery was slow because each country implemented its own security protocol. We have to prevent that from happening again, and we have to ensure that there is collaboration between the public and private sectors,” shared Gloria Guevara Manzo, president and CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) during the webinar The Future of Travel and Tourism, organized by this entity and the Latin American Air Transport Association (ALTA).

At this meeting, in which Infobae participated, specialists from the world of aviation, technology, business and government in Latin America presented their perspectives on the impact of COVID-19 on the sector, and analyzed possible scenarios and future trends to recover travelers’ confidence.

According to information from the WTTC, tourism at a global level represents 10.3% of GDP. Of all the jobs created in the last five years, one out of every four is in this sector. In Latin America, tourism represents an 8% contribution to the GDP. Job losses related to the sector are estimated at 121.1 million, and 6.1 million in Latin America and the Caribbean. “Without the necessary support, and without the right decisions, these numbers can reach 197.5 million globally, and 10.4 million in our region,” predicted Guevara Manzo.

When will the connectivity that existed before the pandemic be recovered?

“Last year, for the first time in history we had connectivity with all regions of the world,” said Jose Ricardo Botelho, ALTA’s CEO and executive director, “Until the beginning of the pandemic, the region had been growing at a rate of 5% per month. COVID-19 is a stone in the road, as we say in Brazil. In April and May there was a 95% reduction in passengers in the region. We believe that we will return to the 2019 numbers in Latin America only in 2025.

The predictions to which Jared Harckham, vice president at ICF aviation consultancy, has access are similar: “It is estimated that the recovery in Latin America will be in 4 or 5 years. The pandemic slowed down air travel globally, but as economies recover, so will domestic activity. The situation is changing rapidly and some economies are worse off than others, of course.

“Air service in Latin America is lagging behind, largely because the pandemic arrived in the region later. The airline industry in general is in crisis. Some traditional airlines have restructured, as have their budgets, and others have directly disappeared. The truth is that they are all going to shrink, with fewer passengers and fewer flights. Perhaps in the long term they will come out of this situation better and with a more sustainable plan than ever,” he added.

Harckham summarizes the recovery in three stages. The first is the quarantine stage, which lasts between two and three months and includes essential flights, repatriation and cargo. The second is the pre-recovery stage, which can last an estimated time of between 6 and 18 months. This is where domestic flights begin and there is a gradual reopening of borders that limits international travel. There is social distance in airports and planes. This is the time to convince passengers that traveling is safe. Finally comes the long awaited recovery phase, which will last several years, depending on the depth of the economic recession and the health of the airlines that continue to operate. Here we will see a total opening of borders, there will no longer be social distance but new hygiene measures will be established, and a change in passenger behavior will be noticed that affects both leisure and business travel.

The government’s role in regaining travelers’ trust

The collapse in demand in the sector is due to the restrictions imposed by governments around the world on travel. Some closed their borders but continued to allow domestic routes, others still do not allow non-essential domestic flights, while others, in regions where the virus first arrived such as Asia and Europe, have already opened their national borders, thus creating the so-called “bubbles” or tourist corridors that allow movement between countries that are in equal sanitary conditions. Therefore, getting planes to fly again will require governments to mitigate or lift restrictions.

“At this time in Europe there are 35,000 flights, 45% of the traffic we had at this point last year,” said Eamonn Brennan, director general of Eurocontrol, the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation. “In Europe there was no good coordination. We started well in June, but in July the problems began. For example, the United Kingdom imposed quarantines for arrivals from Spain and France, then some places were banned. Some governments helped a lot and airlines such as KLM, Lufthansa, Alitalia or Air France were given economic relief, but it generated tension with other airlines that received nothing. The situation now in Europe is very complicated.

“I don’t want to criticize too much, but we must understand that to eradicate COVID-19 we need the vaccine; the virus is not going to leave because of these restrictions. Most governments were caught by health professionals. We don’t think Europe will recover until 2024.

Latin America is one of the regions that established the most restrictions on air traffic during the pandemic. According to Guevara, lessons can be learned from the positive and negative in Europe to revive tourism in the region “in terms of measures implemented. He highlights among the positive things that “it is necessary to resume flights in a coordinated manner; implement testing as in Iceland and Greece; private and public coordination as in Portugal; and financial support from governments to the airlines as in Italy and Germany”.

Less quarantine, more testing

“We don’t believe in quarantines, we believe in testing,” he said. “Testing is making a difference. Before the vaccine arrives we need extensive, fast and reliable testing on departure or arrival, and tracking tools. Multiple tests will only result in isolation of travelers, so there must be coordination for a test I take in London, for example, to be accepted at my destination. We are not all infected, and quarantines will affect recovery.

“We believe that quarantines are not the best way,” agreed Botelho, although he goes one step further: “We also see no reason to do PCR tests in airports. For its part, Roberto Alvo, CEO of LATAM, stressed that “passengers are afraid of quarantines and medical expenses. The 14-day quarantine is harmful to tourism. A first step would be testing upon arrival as a temporary measure. It has to be reliable and fast”.

“It is essential to re-activate it,” Alvo said. Until there is a vaccine there is not going to be total recovery. The passengers have to know that they will be safe. Governments have to let them travel. Most airlines have implemented protocols, and there is scientific evidence that travel is safe. He refers to a recent study conducted by MIT that suggests that during a flight, the possibility of catching coronavirus is 1 in 4300, and 1 in 7700 if the middle seat is left unoccupied.

Therefore, he acknowledged that the real challenge is the coordination with governments in terms of protocols and testing. “Until governments understand this, there is not going to be a full recovery. It will be a slow and long recovery. Until 2023 or 2024 traffic will not recover and connectivity will go down. We were reaching new places that we will now stop reaching. But we can take advantage of this period of hibernation to improve. It is our responsibility to work with governments.

“For the first time we have the opportunity to sit down with governments to find a solution and to show what changes are most needed. We have to take advantage of this opportunity to get out of it better,” Botelho said. “For people to fly again, the key word is ‘trust’. We need to trust the system, but how? By implementing protocols in conjunction with the public sector.

In that sense, the specialists urge the governments of the region to work with private sector actors to adopt safety and health protocols defined in conjunction with health professionals, and thus generate trust in travelers. And they insist: the reactivation of the sector will not be possible without continued government support.

In the end, as Brennan summarizes, landing a plane is easy; the hard part is finding reasons to fly again.

By Martina Putruele – Infobae