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IATA forecasts profits in excess of 9.8 billion for airlines in 2023

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Monday doubled its forecast for airline profits in 2023, but warned that delays in acquiring aircraft to cope with rising demand could slow its post-pandemic recovery.

“The pandemic years are behind us and the borders are open as normal,” Willie Walsh, head of IATA, told the association’s annual summit in Istanbul, attended by some 300 airlines.

IATA raised its industry profit forecast from $4.7 billion to $9.8 billion, buoyed by strong travel demand and lower oil prices.

Revenue is expected to grow 9.7% to $803 billion, approaching the pre-pandemic 2019 level of $838 billion.

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But profit margins of 1.2% mean that delivering a sustainable return on investment will continue to be a headache for some airlines, according to Walsh.

He added that airlines earn on average $2.25 per passenger, “which is less than the price of a cup of coffee or subway ticket.”

The profit forecast, higher than the one announced in December, reflects momentum in Europe, despite the wave of strikes.

In recent months, airlines have been performing well, preparing for a busy summer season.

On the other hand, many airline leaders expressed anger at the average six-month wait for new aircraft. “The airlines are more than frustrated. A solution has to be found,” Walsh stated.

In an unusual move, they agreed to ask IATA to intervene directly with aircraft manufacturers to make sure their frustrations are heard, though without delving into individual contracts.

Airbus and Boeing have pointed out that supply chains are to blame, while warning that there is no immediate solution to supply constraints.

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