Global air passenger traffic demonstrated renewed strength in November 2025, confirming that the appetite for flying remains robust worldwide. According to the latest data published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), total demand, measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), grew 5.7% year-on-year, while capacity, expressed in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK), increased 5.4%.
The result was an average load factor of 83.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than in November 2024, marking a historical record for that month. This figure is significant not only for its absolute level but also because it occurs in a context where airlines continue to operate under capacity constraints stemming from persistent issues in the aerospace supply chain.
International Traffic Leads Growth; Domestic Market Moderates
International traffic once again was the main driver of the market. In November, international RPKs grew 7.7% year-on-year, with a capacity expansion of 7.1%. The international load factor reached 84.0%, also a record high for November, with an improvement of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year.
In contrast, the domestic market showed more contained growth. Demand grew 2.7%, exactly in line with the increase in capacity, leaving the load factor stable at 83.2%. Within this segment, Brazil and India stood out as the fastest-growing markets, while the United States was the only major domestic market with a decline in demand, a behavior IATA tentatively links to the impact of the federal government shutdown.
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Regional Breakdown: Africa Surprises, North America Stagnates
The regional analysis reveals clearly differentiated dynamics:
- Africa, with just 2.2% of global traffic, was the fastest-growing market, with a demand increase of 12.6% and a 2.3 percentage point improvement in its load factor, which reached 75.1%. In the international segment, African airlines achieved an 11.2% year-on-year growth, significantly surpassing the global average.
- Asia-Pacific, which accounts for 33.5% of global traffic, registered RPK growth of 7.8%, with a load factor of 85.4%. In international flights, demand grew 9.3%, although IATA notes a figure to watch: geopolitical tensions caused traffic between China and Japan to slow to single-digit growth for the first time in 2025.
- Europe showed solid and stable performance, with total growth of 6.1% and a load factor of 86.0%, the highest among all regions. In the international market, demand grew 6.8%, accompanied by a capacity increase of 6.1%.
- Middle East maintained its strong expansion, with total growth of 9.5% and international growth of 9.6%, reflecting the increasingly consolidated role of the region’s hubs in intercontinental traffic.
- Latin America and the Caribbean recorded more moderate growth, 3.9% overall and 4.4% in the international segment, with high but slightly lower year-on-year load factors.
- North America was the dissonant note. The total market grew just 0.1%, with a capacity increase of 1.4%, which led to a 1.1 percentage point drop in the load factor, to 80.3%. In international traffic, growth was 4.0%, but the region has accumulated 10 consecutive months of year-on-year deterioration in load factor, a trend that is beginning to worry analysts.
Capacity, Bottlenecks, and a Direct Message to Manufacturers
The backdrop to these results is structural. Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, was explicit: the industry is managing to absorb growing demand despite fleet limitations, not thanks to a comfortable capacity expansion.
Walsh noted that the sector ended 2025 with an order backlog exceeding 17,000 aircraft, an unprecedented figure, and sent a direct message to the manufacturing sector: increase production in 2026 to meet the needs of its customers. The warning is significant. Without a normalization in deliveries, the risk is that demand continues to grow faster than supply, straining costs, networks, and the passenger experience.
Looking Ahead: Sustained Growth, Pending Decisions
November’s data confirms that global air transport shows no signs of cooling demand. However, it also makes clear that the next major challenge lies not on the market side, but on the industrial and operational capacity side.
For airlines, the scenario combines opportunities and risks: high load factors sustain revenue, but the lack of aircraft limits expansion and reduces strategic maneuvering room. For manufacturers and suppliers, 2026 appears as a pivotal year. The open question is whether the aerospace industry will be able to respond in time or if this growth will continue to hit a ceiling that, for now, remains too low.
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