Ryanair Raises Fare Forecast and Anticipates Sharp Jump in Profits After Strong Start to 2026 Bookings

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5 days ago

Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, has revised upwards its fare growth forecast after registering two of its best-ever booking weeks in January. This data sets the tone for its commercial performance heading into 2026. According to the company, fares are already showing a moderate increase, backed by demand that has surpassed internal expectations at the start of the year.

This early momentum has led the Irish airline to anticipate a jump of approximately one third in its profits for the fiscal year ending in March, in a context where cost discipline and operational scale remain central pillars of its model.

Fare Recovery and Profit Guidance

According to Chief Financial Officer Neil Sorahan, Ryanair expects not only to recover the 7% decline in fares recorded last year, but to add one or two additional percentage points. As a result, the company cautiously guides to an after-tax net profit (excluding exceptional items) of between 2.13 and 2.23 billion euros.

This figure contrasts significantly with the 1.6 billion euros earned the previous year and aligns almost perfectly with the LSEG analyst consensus of 2.22 billion euros. Nevertheless, the market reacted cautiously: Ryanair shares were down 3% at 12:50 GMT, following a note from Citi that described the results as solid, albeit “falling short of high expectations.”

Contained Fare Growth in the New Fiscal Year

Despite the positive tone, CEO Michael O’Leary moderated enthusiasm for the new fiscal year, which begins on April 1st. In a call with analysts, he anticipated that fare increases would be modest, with low single-digit growth, consistent with his previous statements pointing to increases of 2% to 4%.

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This approach reflects Ryanair’s traditional prudence in balancing revenue growth with stimulating demand in a European market highly sensitive to price.

Labor Risk on the Operational Radar

One of the main areas of uncertainty for the year lies on the labor front. O’Leary warned of potential union action in Germany and Belgium, as part of the renegotiation of labor agreements with pilots and cabin crew.

The message was clear: where “sensible” agreements cannot be reached, the airline will reduce capacity and absorb the impact of potential strikes—a strategy well-known within Ryanair’s operational playbook and one that underscores its disciplined cost approach.

Boeing, Deliveries, and Fleet: Signs of Normalization

In contrast to the labor tension, the tone towards Boeing was notably positive. O’Leary stated that the American manufacturer is doing a “fantastic job,” implying that the problems of delays and quality control are behind them.

Ryanair expects to receive the final four Boeing 737 MAX 200s from its current order even earlier than planned and was “very optimistic” regarding the on-time arrival of the first 15 out of a total of 150 Boeing 737 MAX 10s, scheduled to be incorporated before the summer of 2027. The timeliness of these deliveries will be key to sustaining planned capacity growth.

Quarterly Results and Regulatory Front in Italy

In the last quarter of 2025, Ryanair recorded a net profit of 115 million euros, excluding an exceptional charge of 85 million euros linked to a fine imposed in December by the Italian competition authority.

The case, however, is far from closed. O’Leary stated he was “highly confident” that the total fine of 256 million euros will be overturned on appeal—an outcome that, if confirmed, would eliminate a significant financial risk in the short to medium term.