The commercial aviation industry is facing a new operational crisis following strikes launched by the United States and Israel against targets in Iran this Saturday. The military escalation, which included missile reprisals from Tehran, has triggered the closure of strategic airspaces and massive flight cancellations in one of the world’s most critical transit regions.
Massive Closure of Airspace and Connection Routes
Following the onset of hostilities, aeronautical navigation maps revealed an almost total vacuum over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, and Bahrain. Aviation authorities in these nations, alongside Qatar and Jordan, proceeded to close their respective airspaces for safety and security reasons.
This disruption is critical given that the region serves as a vital connection hub between Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the importance of this corridor had recently increased as airlines were already bypassing Russian and Ukrainian airspace due to the ongoing conflict in that area.
Impact on Airline Operations
According to preliminary data from Cirium, the immediate impact this Saturday translates to:
- 40% of flights to Israel have been canceled.
- 6.7% of flights in the broader Middle East region have been suspended.
- An increase in operating costs due to longer re-routing and higher fuel consumption.
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Flight Suspensions by International Carriers
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has recommended that EU-based carriers avoid the airspace affected by the military intervention. In response, major airlines have adjusted their schedules:
- Lufthansa: Suspended flights to and from Dubai over the weekend and temporarily halted routes to Tel Aviv, Beirut, and Oman until March 7.
- British Airways (BA): Canceled services to Tel Aviv and Bahrain until March 3, in addition to Saturday’s flights to Amman.
- Air France and Iberia: Canceled operations to Tel Aviv; the French flag carrier also included Beirut in its suspensions.
- Wizz Air: Immediately suspended flights to Israel, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Amman until March 7.
- KLM: Brought forward the suspension of its Amsterdam–Tel Aviv service, canceling the flight scheduled for this Saturday.
Additionally, Indian carriers and the Russian Ministry of Transport confirmed the suspension of flights to Iran and Israel to ensure passenger safety.
Crisis at Regional Hubs and Local Carriers
Persian Gulf-based airlines, which operate some of the world’s busiest airports, have also been forced to halt operations:
- Emirates and flydubai: Reported significant disruptions to their itineraries; flydubai temporarily suspended all operations on Saturday.
- Qatar Airways and Kuwait Airways: Announced the temporary suspension of their services.
- Oman Air: Halted all flights to Baghdad.
Eyewitnesses have reported explosions near key infrastructure, including areas close to Doha—which houses the largest U.S. military base in the region—as well as in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
Security Outlook and Operational Risks
Aviation security experts warn that the situation remains “highly fluid”. Eric Schouten, director of the consultancy firm Dyami, noted that additional tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan could further limit options for alternative routing.
There is growing concern regarding the risk of accidental or deliberate shoot-downs of commercial traffic in active conflict zones. Prolonged closures and precautionary evacuations at selected Gulf airports are anticipated if the military threat continues to expand.
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