Heathrow has sent a clear signal to the market and the regulator: the airport’s board has approved new investment to begin work on the planning application for a third runway, a move that formally reactivates the UK’s largest airport infrastructure project.
The announcement comes at a politically and regulatorily sensitive time. Although construction is still far from starting, Heathrow emphasises that 2026 will be a decisive year. The decisions taken then will determine whether the project can move forward to its next phase or be suspended once again.
For the industry, the message is twofold: there is private investor appetite and shareholder support, but the project’s success depends on a regulatory and political fit that is not yet guaranteed.
An Ambitious Timetable, Dependent on the Regulator and Parliament
The British government has set a demanding timeframe. The official objective is to obtain planning permission by 2029 and to have the third runway operational within a decade, which would place the start of operations around the mid-2030s.
To meet this schedule, Heathrow identifies a sequence of key milestones in 2026:
- Spring 2026: The airport needs clarity from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) on how the initial project costs can be recovered. Without that mechanism, early investment is called into question.
- Summer 2026: The Department for Transport (DfT) will publish the draft Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS), while the CAA will define the long-term regulatory model, a critical element for attracting private capital.
- Autumn 2026: Parliament will vote on the final ANPS, establishing the planning framework that would allow the project to move towards construction and pave the way for the first flights from the new runway a decade later.
Each of these steps is interdependent. A delay or adverse decision in any one of them could derail the project.
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Private Investment and a Narrative of Economic Growth
Heathrow insists on positioning the third runway as the government’s flagship infrastructure project to drive long-term economic growth. According to the airport, the expansion would unlock billions of pounds in private investment, with an impact on businesses in all regions of the UK.
From an aviation perspective, the argument is familiar but relevant: more capacity means more competition among airlines, broader networks, and an improvement in the country’s global connectivity. For industry executives, the subtext is clear: Heathrow seeks to reinforce its role as an intercontinental hub in the face of pressure from other European airports that have already expanded their capacity.
Shareholder Support, But with Clear Conditions
A relevant aspect for investors and airlines is that Heathrow’s shareholders maintain strong backing for the project. However, the airport itself underlines a red line: the expansion will only proceed when the regulatory and public policy frameworks are firmly established.
In other words, this is not a blind gamble. Heathrow is willing to invest in the planning phase, but it will not commit massive capital without sufficient regulatory visibility, especially regarding returns and cost recovery under the CAA’s supervision.
Thomas Woldbye, CEO of Heathrow, frames the decision within a context of renewed political momentum. According to the executive, the board’s approval to begin the planning application reflects ministers’ renewed commitment to the expansion and progress to accelerate the project’s delivery.
Woldbye insists that maintaining momentum is essential and sends a direct message to the regulator and the government: meeting the 2026 milestones is indispensable to unlocking the next phase. Without that institutional alignment, even a project with shareholder support and a solid economic narrative can be paralysed.
A Project Back on the Radar, But Not Yet Cleared for Take-Off
Heathrow’s decision is not the start of construction, but it is a strategic turning point. It reactivates a long-debated project and puts pressure on regulators and policymakers to define the rules of the game within concrete deadlines.
For airlines, the third runway represents a potential growth opportunity at the UK’s main hub.
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