Boeing projects a demand for 2,610 new airplanes in Latin America and the Caribbean over the next two decades, the manufacturer announced Wednesday.
The new forecast reflects the near-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic along with the long-term fundamentals of air travel. Single-aisle commercial models will make up 90% of this aircraft demand, reflecting the expansion of affordable travel opportunities throughout the region.
This 20-year commercial airplane market is valued at $365 billion, according to Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) 2020 report, an annual forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services and Boeing’s view of near-, mid- and long-term market dynamics.
“While the aviation industry across Latin America and the Caribbean has been hit hard by the pandemic, the fundamental drivers of growth in the region remain strong. South America, in particular, has considerable untapped market potential for air transport expansion driven by economic expansion and a large geographic area better served by air transport,” said Ricardo Cavero, vice president of sales for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Through 2039, passenger traffic throughout the region is projected to grow 5.1% annually, and the aircraft fleet is expected to expand 3.5% annually as airlines improve utilization and manage higher load factors. Boeing projects that the number of people traveling within South America will exceed traffic flows between Central and North America during the forecast period.
Boeing’s 20-year forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean includes:
- Demand for more than 2,360 new single-aisle aircraft worth $290 billion.
- Single-aisle aircraft, such as the 737 family, will continue to be the main driver of capacity growth in this region.
- Demand for 220 widebody passenger aircraft and 20 purpose-built widebody freighters, representing a total delivery value of $75 billion.
- A 12% reduction in projected aircraft demand from the prior year forecast, a revision resulting from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Commercial aftermarket services worth $480 billion, including: modifications such as Boeing’s converted freighter aircraft, parts and supply chain services, and analytics-driven digital solutions supporting flight and maintenance operations.
- Demand for 117,000 commercial pilots, cabin crew and aviation technicians to fly and maintain the aircraft fleet.