The sale of TAP Air Portugal has captured the attention of major players in European aviation, marking a significant milestone in the consolidation of the continent’s airline market. With an estimated value of $1 billion, the Portuguese company has piqued the interest of groups such as International Airlines Group (IAG), owner of British Airways, Iberia, and Aer Lingus, as well as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM.
Consolidation: A Strategic Necessity
At the recent Airline Economics conference held in Dublin, industry executives emphasized the urgent need for consolidation. Europe has 36 airlines accounting for 80% of the continent’s capacity, compared to the six major carriers dominating the U.S. market. This fragmentation not only increases costs but also hinders competition with rivals from the U.S., Asia, and the Gulf.
The sale of TAP presents a unique opportunity for major European groups to strengthen their position in the lucrative South American market while developing a new strategic hub in Southern Europe. This move could redefine transatlantic and regional routes.
IAG: The Leading Contender
According to analysts and bankers, IAG emerges as the strongest candidate to acquire a stake in TAP. The group’s experience managing Iberia as a hub in Madrid highlights its ability to integrate airlines while maintaining their national identities.
→ TAP Air to resume flights to Porto Alegre (Brazil) in April 2025
Jonathan Sullivan, IAG’s director of corporate development, emphasized that TAP will remain “a Portuguese pride,” aligning with the group’s strategy of preserving the cultural identities of its brands.
On the other hand, Lufthansa has also shown strong interest, supported by its recent lobbying efforts with the Portuguese government following its investment in Italy’s ITA Airways. However, its silence on specific comments about TAP reflects a cautious strategy amid the competition.
Political and Regulatory Hurdles
Despite significant interest, the sale faces political and regulatory challenges. Political instability in Portugal, including early elections in 2024, has delayed the process. Moreover, the possibility of selling a minority stake of less than 20% could bypass European Commission oversight but would limit the scope of the acquisition.
Historically, regulatory reviews have been a stumbling block for consolidation in Europe. The recent example of ITA Airways’ sale to Lufthansa, which required the surrender of slots at key airports like Milan’s Linate, illustrates the concessions necessary to gain approval. IAG could also face similar challenges due to its ownership of Iberia, potentially raising competition issues in the region.
Timeline and Outlook
Although the Portuguese government has indicated its intention to complete the sale by 2025, analysts like Dudley Shanley of Goodbody suggest it could stretch into 2026. Government indecision and potential regulatory roadblocks could continue to delay the process.
With information from Reuters
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