The Growth of Air Traffic: A Challenge for Climate Goals
Global air traffic is projected to more than double by 2050, increasing fuel demand and jeopardizing the aviation industry’s efforts to reduce emissions, according to a recent study by the climate advocacy group Transport and Environment. This report comes at a crucial time as industry leaders gather at an annual conference in Dublin, where numerous aircraft sales are expected.
Unstoppable Growth of Air Traffic
The report highlights that fuel use in the industry is forecasted to rise by 59% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels, driven by an increase in passenger numbers. This happens despite efforts to incorporate sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and the production of more efficient aircraft.
Challenges in the Use of Sustainable Fuels
The industry has pledged to use more SAF to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, limited supply and prices up to five times higher than traditional aviation fuel hinder its widespread adoption. Currently, only a small fraction of the fuel used comes from cleaner sources.
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Proposed Measures to Control Growth
To mitigate the impact of unchecked growth, the report suggests measures such as limiting airport infrastructure expansion, reducing corporate travel, and increasing taxation on the sector. Jo Dardenne, the group’s aviation director, emphasized the need to curb the aviation industry’s addiction to growth to meet climate goals.
Industry Response
Despite these alarming projections, the industry remains steadfast in defending continuous growth, arguing that aviation is essential for economic development and global connectivity. A spokesperson for the Airlines for Europe organization responded to the report by stating that, instead of focusing on speculative long-term projections, the priority should be on implementing tangible solutions today.
The debate over the future of air traffic and its environmental impact continues. While some advocate for moderate and sustainable growth, others emphasize the importance of aviation for the global economy. The challenge lies in finding a balance that allows progress towards a greener future without sacrificing global connectivity.
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