▶ IATA: 2025 Record Passenger Demand Exposes Commercial Aviation’s True Bottleneck

Commercial aviation closed 2025 with historic demand figures, yet issued a clear warning: while traffic growth is returning to normal patterns, supply remains constrained by structural issues. Comprehensive passenger market data published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) confirms a system operating at its limit, featuring record load factors and mounting pressure on fleets, supply chains, and costs.

Demand at Historic Highs, Capacity Barely Keeps Pace

Throughout 2025, global passenger demand—measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK)—grew by 5.3% year-over-year. This expansion was almost perfectly aligned with capacity, which increased by 5.2% in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK). This synergy resulted in an average load factor of 83.6%, the highest ever recorded for a full year.

This figure is significant: it reflects a market that absorbed nearly all available capacity, leaving airlines with very tight operating margins to manage any further disruptions. December 2025 confirmed this trend, with global demand rising 5.6% against a 5.9% capacity growth, maintaining a load factor of 83.7%.

→ Arajet Receives IATA Airline Membership Certification, Returning Dominican Aviation to Global Map After Three Decades

International Markets Lead Growth as Domestic Momentum Fades

International Traffic: The True Engine The international segment was the primary driver of the year. In 2025, international demand grew by 7.1% while capacity advanced by 6.8%, pushing the load factor to a historic record of 83.5%. By December, international traffic increased by 7.7% year-over-year, though the load factor dipped slightly to 83.9% as supply began to expand more forcefully toward year-end.

Domestic Markets: Moderate Growth and Signs of Fatigue Global domestic traffic grew by only 2.4% throughout 2025, with capacity increasing by 2.5%. The average load factor sat at 83.7%. Following the strong post-pandemic rebound, domestic markets have entered a normalization phase characterized by significant regional disparities.

Regional Overview: Asia-Pacific Sets the Pace

Asia-Pacific: These carriers were the standout performers. International traffic grew 10.9% in 2025, with an 84.4% load factor—the highest of any region. It also recorded the highest absolute growth for the year.

Europe: European airlines saw a 6.0% annual increase in international traffic, with capacity growing at a nearly identical 5.9%. The load factor reached 84.1%, confirming a mature yet efficient market.

Middle East: Carriers in this region grew 6.7% in international traffic, with a 5.8% capacity increase. The load factor rose to 81.6%, solidifying the region’s role as an intercontinental hub.

North America: This region showed the most moderate performance, with international traffic growing only 2.1% in 2025 and a slight decline in load factor to 83.9%.

Latin America and Africa: Latin America saw 8.6% annual growth, but a 10.2% capacity expansion led to the largest load factor drop among all regions (-1.2 ppt). Africa grew 7.8% in traffic, reaching a record 74.9% load factor for the region.

Key Domestic Markets: Brazil Shines, U.S. Recedes

In the domestic landscape, Brazil was the most dynamic market with an 11.1% RPK growth in 2025. Conversely, the U.S. domestic market contracted by -0.6% and saw the largest drop in load factor (-1.9 ppt). India maintained the world’s highest load factor (85.2%), while Australia closed the year with the lowest among major domestic markets (81.2%).

IATA Message: Sustainability and Supply Chain

Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, highlighted two critical challenges exposed by the return to historical growth patterns:

Decarbonization: A direct call for governments to accelerate fiscal policies to scale the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

Supply Chain Crisis: Described as the “biggest headache” of 2025, involving aircraft and engine delivery delays and maintenance shortages that IATA estimates cost over $11 billion.

Airlines responded by extending the lifespan of older fleets and maximizing occupancy. While the strategy worked, Walsh emphasized it is merely a “patch”. The industry hopes 2025 represents the low point of the crisis, with 2026 marking a real recovery in supply. Ultimately, every delayed aircraft limits growth and stalls the transition to quieter, cleaner, and more efficient fleets.