As 2025 begins, the Cirium Ascend Consultancy team has conducted a detailed analysis to estimate the number of commercial passenger aircraft that Airbus and Boeing might deliver this year and in the future. Based on Cirium’s years of experience and fleet forecast, it is projected that Airbus could deliver up to 900 units, while Boeing could achieve a strong recovery with approximately 550 passenger aircraft within a total of 610 commercial airplanes.
Challenges in Delivery Projections
Annual delivery projections have become increasingly difficult in recent years due to demand uncertainty caused by the pandemic and recent supply chain issues. Key factors affecting deliveries include engine supply delays, particularly in the CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney PW1000G programs, as well as Boeing’s internal problems with the 737 Max.
As a result, in 2024 Airbus delivered 674 single-aisle aircraft (599 from the A320 family and 75 A220), while Boeing managed to deliver only 258. For 2025, Cirium projects that the European manufacturer will deliver approximately 680 A320 family aircraft and 100 A220, while Boeing could reach 450 737 Max units. To meet these expectations, Airbus will need to increase its production by 20% compared to 2024, while the U.S. manufacturer will have to achieve an 80% increase.
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Engine Production: Key to Meeting Targets
The availability of engines will be crucial for meeting these forecasts. Both GE (manufacturer of Leap engines) and RTX (parent company of Pratt & Whitney) have recently published production forecasts.
GE delivered 1,407 Leap engines in 2024 and expects to increase production by between 15% and 20% in 2025. If it achieves the midpoint of this increase, it would produce around 1,650 engines. Assuming that 20% of these are spare engines, approximately 690 engines would be available for installation in new aircraft.
In the case of Pratt & Whitney, around 350 Airbus aircraft were delivered with PW1000G engines in 2024, implying 700 installed engines. Assuming that 20% of the delivered engines were spares, the total production would have been 770. With a 14% increase in production in 2025, production would reach 880 engines, of which approximately 750 would be available for installation in new aircraft.
The total number of engines available for installation in 2025 would be 1,065, which is lower than the 1,230 projected aircraft. However, Boeing began the year with over 100 units of the 737 Max in inventory, of which 34 have already been delivered and another 52 are ready for dispatch. This raises the total number of available engines to 1,150, although this remains 80 units below the projection.
If the 737-7 model receives certification in 2025, it could increase deliveries, as there are 27 units in inventory. However, this possibility remains uncertain.
Downside Risks in Projections
Recent statements from engine manufacturers indicate that the delivery projections for 2025 face downside risks. In 2024, more than 1,500 combined deliveries from Airbus and Boeing were expected, but over time the projection was significantly reduced. A similar situation could occur in 2025, although the gap seems smaller.
Situation in January 2025
As of the end of January 2025, data collected by Cirium shows a less than encouraging start to the year. To date, only 2 A220 deliveries, 15 from the A320 family, and 38 737 Max units have been recorded. January traditionally has low delivery volumes, but these numbers suggest that the industry might face another challenging year.
Airbus has delivered between 15 and 32 A320 family aircraft in January since 2018, with 26 units delivered in January 2024, meaning 2025 appears to be off to a slower start. Boeing, on the other hand, has performed better in January thanks to the delivery of units produced in 2024.
In conclusion, 2025 presents significant challenges for aircraft and engine manufacturers, which could lead to downward revisions in delivery expectations throughout the year.
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