IATA Forecasts Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production to double in 2025
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production will reach 2 million tons (2.5 billion liters) in 2025. This represents just 0.7% of total airline fuel consumption. Although this volume marks a 100% increase compared to 2024, the path to emission-free aviation remains long and costly.
“While it is encouraging to see SAF production double, such a small volume will add $4.4 billion to the global fuel bill. Production must accelerate and become more efficient,” warned Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Europe: A Mandate That Inflates Sustainability Costs
Starting January 1, 2025, airlines operating in the European Union and the UK face mandatory SAF usage requirements. The result has been a doubling of costs in Europe, driven by compliance fees imposed by fuel producers and suppliers.
An estimated one million tons of SAF will be purchased to meet these regulations, with a market price of $1.2 billion. An additional $1.7 billion in fees brings the total cost to $2.9 billion.
“With that extra money, an additional 3.5 million tons of carbon emissions could have been avoided,” Walsh explained. “Europe’s approach is failing. It urgently needs revision.”
IATA Drives Global Solutions for a More Accessible SAF Market
To prevent a repeat of Europe’s scenario in other markets, IATA has launched two key initiatives:
A SAF Registry Managed by CADO
This system will transparently track SAF purchases, usage, and emission reductions, aligning with international regulations such as CORSIA and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.
SAF Matchmaker: A Tool to Connect Supply and Demand
The goal is to streamline SAF procurement by matching airline requests with supplier offers, optimizing distribution and access to the fuel.
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What Governments Must Do: Three Urgent Action Lines
IATA calls on governments to focus on effective, realistic policies that genuinely boost SAF production and use without distorting markets:
1. Eliminate Advantages for Fossil Fuels
Renewable energy producers currently compete at a disadvantage against major oil companies. Reallocating part of the $1 trillion in global oil subsidies would be a critical step.
2. Integrate SAF into National Energy Policies
This involves ensuring sufficient renewable energy production to generate SAF and reserving a fair share for aviation. Shared infrastructure and co-production should also be promoted.
3. Support CORSIA as the Sole Market Mechanism
So far, only Guyana has made its carbon credits available for airlines to meet CORSIA obligations. IATA urges other countries to follow suit.
India: A Key Player in SAF’s Future
India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, is taking decisive steps by launching the Global Biofuels Alliance and setting a 2% SAF blending target for international flights by 2028.
Measures such as guaranteed pricing, financial support for new projects, and technical standards are part of the package. IATA will collaborate with the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) and Praj Industries Limited to align production with international best practices.
“India has a major opportunity to lead the global push for biofuels with progressive policies that accelerate SAF adoption,” IATA concluded.
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